Methodology
How we analyze, predict, and verify Bitcoin market data.
Data Sources
Price Data
We use real-time market data from CoinGecko and Binance. All price data is verified against multiple sources to ensure accuracy.
- • Primary: CoinGecko API
- • Secondary: Binance API
- • Update frequency: Every 30 minutes
Historical Data
Historical price data is stored in our database for verification purposes. We maintain a complete record of all predictions and actual market outcomes for transparency and accuracy tracking.
Indicator Methodology
RSI (14) — Weight: 15%
Relative Strength Index measures momentum on a scale of 0-100. We use refined thresholds to identify extreme conditions and trend strength.
Bullish: RSI < 35 (oversold)
Bearish: RSI > 65 (overbought)
Strong Bearish: RSI > 75 (deep overbought)
Stochastic RSI — Weight: 10%
Combines RSI and stochastic oscillator for more sensitive overbought/oversold detection, catching momentum shifts earlier than standard RSI.
Bearish: StochRSI > 80 (extreme overbought)
Neutral: Between 20-80
MACD — Weight: 15%
Moving Average Convergence Divergence tracks trend changes using 12-day and 26-day exponential moving averages to identify momentum shifts.
Bearish: MACD line below signal line (death cross)
Signal Strength: Based on distance from zero line
Moving Averages — Weight: 15%
Combines 20-day and 50-day SMA analysis to determine trend direction and strength. Golden/Death cross detection with price position analysis.
Bearish: SMA20 < SMA50 with price below both
Alignment score based on trend consistency
Bollinger Bands — Weight: 10%
Uses 20-day SMA with 2 standard deviation bands to identify volatility compression, price extremes, and potential reversal zones.
Bearish: Price near upper band (> 90% position)
%B Position: Measures price location within bands
VWAP — Weight: 10%
Volume Weighted Average Price approximated using price movement intensity. Identifies whether price is trading above or below average value.
Bearish: Price < VWAP (selling pressure)
Institutional reference level
Price Momentum — Weight: 10%
Measures 10-day price rate of change to identify trend momentum and acceleration. Helps confirm trend strength and potential exhaustion.
Bullish: Momentum > +1%
Bearish: Momentum < -1%
Strong Bearish: Momentum < -3%
Trend Strength (ADX) — Adjustment Factor
Average Directional Index measures trend strength independent of direction. Used to adjust confidence scores in strong trending markets.
Moderate Trend: ADX 25-50
Weak/No Trend: ADX < 25 (reduce confidence)
Verification Rules
How We Verify Predictions
A prediction is considered "correct" if the actual closing price falls within the predicted range during the 24-hour period.
We also track whether the market direction (up/down) matched our bias, even if the exact range was missed.
Predictions are verified daily at 08:00 UTC, comparing the previous day's prediction against the actual 24-hour price range.
Rolling accuracy is calculated over 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day periods. All-time accuracy tracks every prediction since platform launch.
Prediction Range Calculation
How We Calculate Price Ranges
We use Average True Range (ATR) to measure market volatility. The prediction range is calculated as: Range = Current Price ± (ATR × Multiplier)
The range multiplier varies based on trend strength:
- • Strong trend (consistency > 70%): Tighter range (~1.2% - 2%)
- • Moderate trend (40-70%): Normal range (~1.5% - 2.5%)
- • Ranging market (< 40%): Wider range (~1.8% - 3%)
To ensure practical predictions, we enforce a maximum range of 6% total (±3% from current price), regardless of volatility conditions.
We factor in 30-day historical volatility to adjust ranges during extreme market conditions, while maintaining our maximum limits.
Update Frequency
Automated analysis via GitHub Actions
24-hour forecast updated every hour with fresh market data
Previous day's prediction verified and recorded
What We Do NOT Do
We analyze market structure, not trading decisions.
Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.
Every forecast remains publicly visible.
Our analysis is general market information only.
Disclaimer
Educational Purpose Only: The information provided on TrendXBit is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to buy or sell any cryptocurrency.
Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. Past performance and prediction accuracy do not guarantee future results. You should always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No Liability: By using this website, you acknowledge that you understand these risks and agree that TrendXBit and its operators are not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on the information provided.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this website constitutes professional financial advice. We are not licensed financial advisors. All content is opinion-based analysis of publicly available market data.